Slow Bleed

A snapback rally did not materialize today as we had some weak data come out that kept the sell off going. The S&P probed down to 906 before finishing at 912. WFR continues to confuse and piss me off. It trades strong yesterday then falls apart today and was definitely the relative weakness position today but finished at support so I haven't cut it loose yet. I did get rid of ANR and put in an order to sell my DSX calls as well but did not get filled. My puts on RTH and XLY worked out nicely today and helped offset the WFR move. Overall I ended down slightly over 1%, essentially in line with the S&P. I would rather be making money even on down days but I'll take some small losses over large ones.

Short term we are starting to get oversold with the McClellan Oscillator at -80, the most extreme reading was -120 back in March. The ideal situation in my opinion would be a gap down tomorrow at the open that I can buy into because we will gap down and hit that oversold level likely triggering some buy programs. I also think that there will be some buying to help volatility collapse back down going into expiration and helping all the puts that were likely sold recently lose value. I am sure we won't gap down because that is what I would like and likely others would like so we'll prob gap up.

The 900 level will likely serve as a support level for the S&P as it is a round number and most will be watching it. I will possibly look to take a day trade or two tomorrow depending on how the day feels. If we rally significantly I will then look to take off some more of my long positions assuming we finish under 930. If we gap down I will look to take off some put positions in hopes of the snap back. Overall I feel like I've been inefficient lately and my positions have been out of sync and that can be seen in the losses as of late and obviously from my long bias. Of course I can't be too hard on myself since we just broke down but I was a little loose with my stops which is never a good idea.

There haven't been a massive amount of breakdowns occuring on an individual chart basis but the financials and some others are definitely showing some weakness here. This could be the larger pull back everyone wants but it will all depend on if we continue to get bearish data. All I know is I don't want to see my account deteriorate much further.

Total Return for 2009: 153%