Thursday, April 23, 2009

BMC vs. S&P 500


I figured I would make a graph from when I started tracking my performance and compare it to the S&P 500 over the same time period. As a full disclosure the S&P graph was hand calculated using 931 as the closing high at the beginning of the year and rounding to the nearest whole percent.

The graph looks fairly impressive but I will only be impressed if I can keep the upward trend in tact and have fairly low volatility and draw downs because this is also over a period of time of the market jumping about 30% off it's lows. Even with that being said I have four times the gains so it's not too shabby.

In regards to today, the volatility continues. We rallied into the close in the opposite fashion of yesterday, finishing pretty much right at 850 again. We started to break down and I sold my last small position in DSX as to not give up the rest of the gains but it recovered as the market did. So I am in cash besides my short call positions in AAPL, despite the stock being up almost 4 dollars I made money on my short calls, thanks to an over 10% collapse in volatility the one time I welcome it. AMZN reported after hours and is moving up but again I suspect the volatility decay will overall work in my favor. DSX was an example of frustration when the stock is down 30 cents but the option is down 40 cents when the delta is only supposed to be .75 but acts like 1.25 because of decay.

It seems like the extended pull back may not happen or at least not for now. We had generally positive earnings and reactions after hours today from AMZN, MSFT, AXP. That will go up against the supposed "stress tests" of the government releasing details tomorrow. If that is a negative surprise it could cause the sell off but with a slew of better than expected earnings we could push higher. I am reluctant to put long term money to work so I may take the opportunity to do some day trading. Many of the positions I cut yesterday continued lower today which is another reason to follow rules and sell on breaks of support. CHK failed to finish over 20, ACH is looking decent but if the market is going to roll over everything will get pulled down with it. ANR was strong again which was annoying because I'd like to get in but will have to keep waiting.

I had a small loss today which is always annoying but in the context of my broader performance I have managed the draw down fairly well so far.

Total Return for 2009: 124%

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