Monday, November 5, 2007

Back Again


Alright, well I am back again, with more positions, more diversification, low risk entries and smaller position sizing. Of course which one of my orders didn't get filled at the end of the day? FSLR, which promptly releases news after the bell and goes up. Such is life.

ACH continues to prove the point of why we cut our losses short, even if that means only getting the bid for an option to sell out at the end of the day. It gapped down big today, trading near 60, way below my break of 75 and the even more significant technical break of 70, I have no excuse for this. I am still too biased to the long side for my comfort, but I do have some money on the sidelines to buy some index puts if need be, which I think I will be needing soon as we keep retesting 1500 on the S&P I think its only a short time before we break it and down we go.

I did exit CROX last week, as I should have(but still much too late), which again proved to be the wise decision as it dropped even further today.

It's quite depressing to see all my options positions in the red, even if its only slightly on most, let's review the current and new positions.

ACH-I'm retarded, I'll be out of that tomorrow.
AKAM-exit with a break below 38, currently at 38.74 Target of 50 R:R=1:10
CMG-exit with a break below 130, currently at 130.94, Target of 150 R:R=1:19
CVH-exit with a break above 60, currently at 58.61, Target of 50 R:R=2:9
KSS-exit with a break above 52, currently at 50.93 Target of 45 R:R=1:5
MON-exit with a break below 92, currently at 93.39 Target 105 R:R=1:10
YUM-exit with a break below 38, currently at 38.51 Target of 45 R:R=1:6

So, I have my plan, now I just have to trade it, all of them fit my criteria of risk to reward, all are within the 2% risk tolerance.

I will look for good bearish entry positions as I may take on another one to help balance a bit more, but if there is a good bullish opportunity like on fslr again I will take it down because I think that stock will just keep going. I watching others like AAPL and GOOG as well for low risk entry points too.

I am weary of being too bullish right now because I think we will be going down eventually in the short term, force another cut in the rates as things get worse and then start to recover, who knows but with oil and gold at highs, the dollar at lows and a questionable credit market and terrible housing I don't think the market is global enough to keep rallying like this unless a couple things change. But of course my opinion means nothing and the market will do what it wants and likely knows better.

I have to give a shout out to Jeff Kohler for his watch list and giving me a heads up to some of these positions at good entry points. Hopefully they will help me pimp the market like Wayne Brady and I can say "I'm Rich Biatch!".

2 comments:

Krystal said...

Ben, I too, am still too biased to the bullish side. I'll be looking for some good bear entries this week, perhaps some off of Jeff's watchlist. I'm just so leery of puts since I haven't had very good results with them... could it be because this is a bull market?

Sigh...

Ben said...

Krystal, afterall this is a bull market haha, clearly my bearish sentiment is way off with Jeff and Eric declaring higher highs, makes me at least feel better about eyeing up AAPL for tomorrow.

You prob have struggled with puts because its a bull market, haha. You'll like them on the down days though, even one of my put plays gained money today.

Thanks for posting, at least I have one regular reader, haha. :-)