Tuesday, November 13, 2007

The Contrarian Trade


So the Dow is goes up 319, the Nasdaq 90 and I buy puts? On AAPL no less which was up over 10% today. Oh, and I made money.

AAPL was just going up non-stop, which I thought was slightly ridiculous and I knew there had to be some profit taking. I basically used some logic and watched the stock carefully as it got towards 170 which I assumed would be the top for the day. At the time that ended up being the case and I bought some puts. It then broke its uptrend and went sideways for a while, slightly down then broke down to 166. I was up 3,000 at that point but didn't sell, it came back up and I gave it every possibility to bounce off resistance of the upper channel and come back down, but it ended up breaking both horizontal and diagonal resistance, not to mention a round number of 167, so I exited and instead made 2,200, which was nice. It sucked letting the profits slip but until it broke the trend I am not to know maybe it was going to go down to 165 and I could make even more. Getting out ended up being correct as it stayed up and ended up at 170. Follow the chart!

GOOG was a different story, I followed the chart, I logically got in where I thought there would be a bottom, it was lagging most of the other tech stocks in terms of percentage gain too so I figured it would at least hit 655(it was at 645 at the time). It had support at 645, but that broke so I bailed and lost about 200. That's ok, I defined my lines and traded my plan, logic was right overall, but I just got in at about the wrong time, because it only broke that line for a little while then came back up and ended at 660.

Had I entered those AAPL calls yesterday, I would have been up about 5,000. But we know what happens when we start using "would have's". ;-)

If I trade at all tomorrow it will only be day trading again until Thursday morning after we have both PPI and CPI data. If they are lower than expected I think we may sustain the rally and keep going up. If they are higher than expected, that means the fed can't cut rates anymore and we will likely head back down for the time being. Some think this was just short covering, some of it probably was, others will look to that data as well.

Oh, I exited KSS and CVH just because I assumed a rally and did not want to give back any more profits. PPI could set the mood for tomorrow like Walmart and Goldman Sachs did today.

2 comments:

Krystal said...

Okay, Ben... I've got some questions! :)

When choosing a stock to day trade, what do you look for? I have to assume volume and ATR, because you need that sucker to move and move NOW! Hey, you've only got one day, right?

But what else do you look for? Do you use any particular time frame chart? 10 days? 60 days?

Also, how do you select your option? ITM, ATM, or OTM?

When do you enter? Within the first hour of the trading day (that's a sin, you know!)? :) How do you determine that you've gotten a valid entry signal?

Do you use charts from the previous few days to determine near term support/resistance?

Okay, surely by now I'm getting on your nerves. I'll stop now!... until I start again!

:)

Ben said...

Krystal,

I will make a post about this later today with some pics to help demonstrate. Hopefully it will help.

Don't worry you aren't getting on my nerves, I like questions. :-)

Ben