Monday, June 2, 2008

New Week, New Month, New Positions

So since last week I have made a few moves. Took a trade and got out with a loss below my 2% level. However, it was tough because if I waited till the end of the day I would have still held the position. Today that position would be worth a decent profit(about 50%). I had originally bought some SPY puts as we approached the 1400 level as I was not convinced of the rally and decline in oil. On thursday we went up to 1405, I was at that point holding a loss of slightly less than my 2% which was my limit, not to mention a finish at 1405 would signal a break back above 1400. Since I have a loss already I was not looking to make my losses bigger. I gave it a chance to reverse but it behaved just like an uptrend and bounced back off of support. I cut it off and it did keep going up. However, by the end of day it finished back at 1400. Friday was the same, went above 1400 only to finish back at 1400, a break and close above 1400 was my exit. Today it was down to 1380.

This is an example of emotions effecting a trade, which I don't want. The best thing would have been to wait till the end of the day to enter and see we were not going to finish above 1400. I got over zealous looking to make a few dollars ahead of time. I was wrong, I learn and move on.

Today I looked to get into some other trades. PTEN looked to be bounced off of support in a nice channel uptrend. I took down some calls. I also took down some calls in AAPL. PTEN if there is a break below 31 that will signal an exit with my target being 35. AAPL will likely have volatility going into the WWDC event. I am looking to profit off of this, a break above 190 should signal a move higher likely to 200.

I had a couple other positions I was looking to get into but my limit orders were not filled while I was in class. ANF is looking weak, if it breaks below 70 that is huge and I am looking to buy puts.

I am still holding my SIRF and PENN calls, I am likely going to cut SIRF loose as they are June options and it is not moving enough to warrant holding it and watching it decay. I am unsure what will happen with the buyout of PENN, obviously it seems like nothing will happen or the stock would be trading up, but again the point was to take only a position I am willing to lose completely, so I will hold it until there is more conclusive news. I will hope it gaps to 67, but that will be unlikely. The provision of course is that the buyout price increases for every day that it doesn't close. Theoretically I may as well hold till July expiration if I have downside of 2% and a potential upside of at least 12 dollars of intrinsic value. These trades should be few and far between but I am comfortable right now. I need to find other trades, mostly puts to balance which I'll look for tomorrow if I have time.

Time to read Fortune and then go to bed.

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