Thursday, June 12, 2008

Ping Pong Game

So Tuesday I entered into two call positions after selling out of my AAPL position and all other losing positions. I bought calls on CLB that had a break out and then a pull back, as well as FCX that had a bull flag breakout. The next day on a large market down day they were showing me nice gains, today they give it all back. FCX broke below support and I sold out, as I should have. CLB is still a small loss but still held above support.

Today I was planning to buy puts on the indicies at the close, unfortunately I should have done it mid day at resistance because it turned over and headed back down. If we see any strength tomorrow I will likely get into some puts.

This week was a lesson in cutting losses, because had I not, I would be hurting way worse than taking my small losses. I considered AAPL puts just because there seemed to be a concern about Steve Jobs, and I think if it comes out that Steve Jobs is in fact having a cancer recurrence, which would be terrible for him, the stock could easily lose 20% of it's value. I am thinking of looking for an opportunity to get some puts if AAPL comes back a bit after this large drop. With the prospect of Jobs' illness and the apparent market headwinds I think AAPL is temporarily done going up.

I again tried to get some put plays on both GS and MS as they rallied today, missed my fill on GS by .05, same on MS, both I assumed would rally slightly more, i'd get filled and be good, but that did not happen and the stocks sold off. It's hard to look at that, I sometimes will just pay the ask to get in, and I have good conviction, but of course the cheaper I can get it, the more of a gain I can start with or the less of a loss I can take to find out if I am wrong.

It's scenarios like this where I'll have a big up day then it reverses the next day that really tests my patience and ideas that staying with the trend till the end is the best thing. Of course having more plays to balance myself would have helped in the overall picture, individually I stuck with these till they did not work, again as I should do.

I have to work tomorrow so I don't think I'll be able to do much, but I'll keep an eye on things.

Best thing(and off topic), Celtics come from 21 points down to beat the Lakers and take a 3-1 lead in the NBA finals. The series would be over next game if the league didn't switch to this stupid 2-3-2 rule however I am hoping KG and the Celtics can come up with another win on the road and clinch it.

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