Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Volatile Fed Day

Today was one of those days that again was very volatile, although it didn't happen until the last 1.5 hours of the day. We steadily increased into the fed announcement, dropped, then shot up then promptly sold off after hanging around highs for a while. My account was up +2000 at its peak essentially and ended up +600. I had orders in to sell my GS, didn't get filled, I had it at 19.20 and I think bid only got to 19.05 at its high then it sold off. I am highly considering selling off most of my positions before a fed announcement, but of course you never know, we could have gotten a huge rally(and did breifly).

Diversification actually saved me today, WFR sold hard on an analyst downgrade, dropping almost 10% so my puts gained 950. This actually was the sole reason I was up about 1% today when all was said and done. My other positions are still there, I thought I may have to exit VIA, which I still may because I don't like how illiquid it is, but it closed back below 39 by end of day. SLB closed above 100 but sold off into the close which is slightly concerning, although most stocks did the same. My Q's position was the biggest mover, again I considered entering a sell at 2.30, but thought I'd wait till end of day to see where we ended. The Q's broke a 2 week uptrend hard, but bounced off some horizontal support at 47. This is a scenario where I struggle with what to do, I could add to my position and tighten my stop if I think we still go up. But I don't think I want to add to my risk if we have another big move to the down side, better to play it safe.

We'll see how the rest of the week plays out, I was hoping this would be the push to get the S&P above 1400, which only happened briefly and then we finished below the 1390 level on top of that. I am hoping this was mere profit taking, because the feds language didn't seem very bad IMO, but what do I know. Of course, obviously my opinion doesn't matter its what the big money thinks. People can't argue at this point though that we are in a recession because we were flat with last quarter which was better than expected. This could be revised down later but that means we would need another 2 quarters of declining growth now to technically be in a recession.

Nothing seemed to act as expected though, commodities should have sold off, dollar should have strengthened theoretically if people were bullish on this cut but that did not occur which is why I am weary.

Bottom line, none of my trades are broken so I stay in them. My ACH is beyond my max risk barely but the trend is still there, its a matter of the spread so I am still in. May not be the case tomorrow...

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