Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Premature Put Exit?

So at about 885 on the S&P I decided to sell 7 of my 10 puts expecting a bit more of a snapback short covering into the close. I wanted to shift my bias because this was a fairly significant sell off with the break of 900 and the reason we sold off somewhat changes the picture like I was thinking. In the short term i figured we went from overbought to oversold very fast so we could see some relief rally. The ideal scenario for me would be for Walmart to report better than expected earnings and guidance and we have a better than expected jobless claims and we have somewhat of a relief rally and then I would look to buy puts again at 900.

The problem is that we may continue down to 875 wihtout that happening and I am left with not much insurance left to the downside. I have watched my call positions go from large profits to break even, which is very annoying but at least my puts outpaced them overall. I saw a couple of low risk opportunities so I went long but it could be premature if things start to get worse.

JBLU continues to annoy with another 6% down day, and what do you know? The most open interest is at the 5 strike which is somewhat helpful to me but I'd rather be up at 6 with no worries of it breaking down with the market. I will watch it closely tomorrow along with the broad market and act as necessary. I feel like the next leg will be to the downside and create the best profit opportunities but I'd like to get a rally first to get better prices.

Total Return for 2009: 154%

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