Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Will Stress Tests Spoil Rally?

Today was pretty much a flat day in the market. I had a fairly decent day with a majority of my positions working the way they should. This was a nice change of pace. The new risk I took has paid off so far with my calls outpacing my puts. I had a dilemma today because DECK broke back above 60 which is where I planned to exit however I felt there was still more downside risk and didn't want to only have one true put position since I added a new call position today. So I decided to hold due to the fact that it is still not at my loss limit and the extra protection is worth it to me.

This could be a good move as a report is coming out about BAC needing 34 billion more in capital which is way more than anyone ever guessed. Who knows what they will say about it when they are officially announced but as of now the futures are down by over 1%. This could cause the sell off I'd like to have happen before being comfortable getting long again. My new call position could be in danger now however a lot of the selling likely occured today after earnings were announced so I am hoping that has alleviated a lot of the pressure.

JBLU had a huge move up today giving me a 20% cushion going into expiration. If it holds up decently well tomorrow I think i'll be fine. AAPL is still my only concern right now because new news could come out ahead of June and send the stock over my strike price but if we have a pull back tomorrow and get back below 130 I should be ok.

Overall I have 2 long call positions and 2 long put positions so I am decently balanced there. I hope in a pull back my puts outpace my longs and at least limit my losses if not help me profit in the pullback. If we have a good pullback going into the stress test announcements it could create a pop if things aren't as bad as feared. I want to test 875 and hold it before getting long in any size.

Total Return for 2009: 143%

No comments: