Monday, May 12, 2008

Diversification

Well, after another crappy day on friday I ended up making back a couple percent today and also took the opportunity to diversify my account. I now have 5 call positions and 3 put positions. I am approximately 65% delta positive. This should insulate me more from down days while helping my bullish stance on up days.

RIMM was a big mover today, it broke out past a new high in the morning and I wanted to hop on board but waited for a pullback that never came. Visa got hammered for a while but came back. This is a discretionary position that I feel will work out but still don't know if exceptions are good(obviously conviction doesn't trump rules).

EWZ finally started back up and I took the opportunity when it was at support friday to add to my position that I had missed initially. I would like to see a move to 100.

I bought calls on SIRF, there is heavy call volume and open interest on the June 7.50 and 10 dollar calls. For .60 I bought 10 contracts of the 7.50 because that is still my 2% risk tolerance, and it could pay off big to the upside if there are people betting with more knowledge than I have(which is what I am assuming).

FXI showed some signs of life today, which I am hoping will start trading up with EWZ.

Dry bulk shippers were huge today so my DRYS position finally became profitable and I am hoping it will run back to old highs and I can add with dips along the way.

In a related note I bought puts on POT, as the dollar strengthens commodities should weaken and POT is hitting hard resistance at 200, it seems to move quite a bit so if people start selling it could fall quite a bit. I am hoping for it to fall back to 175 or so otherwise I'll exit with my 2% loss. LVS continues to slowly break down but I am looking for a more drastic move to hopefully come soon.

SGR was a new put play along with POT, looking to ride it back down to 40 hopefully, or exiting with a break back above 50. Even though afterhours doesn't mean much usually, SGR was up more than it was down today, but there doesn't appear to be any news so we'll see.

These are exactly the type of plays I am looking for, relative strength or weakness, so I can make money on puts on up days and money on calls on down days because the stocks continue their trend regardless.

I think I may hop on board the Q's again once we have a pull back since I just realized I am not long any tech right now which is a big mistake. I think we could see some good action weds if Walmart reports a good quarter, but tomorrow may lack conviction, but of course I really have no idea. At this point I have 2/3 of my capital at work with 1/3 to help if needed. I feel decently diversified. I'd like to get long the dollar still, which is still bullish but in a different way.

With M&A appearing to come back in that is a good signal for the credit markets and stocks IMO, meaning I may want to get long GS again. We'll see how it goes, either way I hope I am diversified enough to do well and not get caught again like I did last week.

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