Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Up on a Down Day

So, even though I could complain about being up much more during the day than what I finished at(I just did), I have to be happy about being positive in a down or mixed day.

I gained about 1% back today while the Dow and S&P were down. The frustrating thing was seeing my account up 5% at one point. I assumed I would give some of that back but not so much of it. Overall though, things generally did what they should, my calls gained in value and so did my puts.

Except for SGR, which is a thorn in my side, it broke back above 50, which signaled an exit, which I tried to do at the end of the day but did not get filled. When I realized I was not getting filled and tried to correct it the market had just closed and I am now holding it over night. I'll cut it loose tomorrow at the open and hope it doesn't gap up.

My Visa position is testing my patience as I sit with a loss. It sold off hard into the close. I have a feeling we may see manipulation and a pin at 85 for options expiration. Walmart reported today which I thought it was reporting tomorrow. The numbers were good, outlook was cautious, I think the market likes that retailers are still shopping even though its at discount stores.

Tomorrow we get CPI, I feel slightly exposed. I contemplated some front month OTM SPY puts as insurance to a negative surprise. If we get a reading inline or lower than expectations I think we see a rally. If inflation is higher than expected there will be fear of the fed having to raise rates so we may sell off.

I added another bullish position in FSLR. It had a large move today close to all time highs, I feel it will break out and go for a run in the near term.

CPI comes out before the market opens so we'll see how the futures are when I wake up. Oil is still a concern, but the 10 year was up today and the dollar still held.

Lets hope diversification proves to be helpful tomorrow regardless.

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