Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Forced Break

Well, Friday showed us the return and evidence of a break in up trend. 1390 broke down to 1375 which was my next target had my puts been filled. Can't live by "should haves" though. I ended up not doing anything friday and didn't do anything today. I may be forced to sit out over the next two weeks since I have class from 1:30-4:30 and laptops are not allowed. So making trades at the end of the day as needed would be nearly impossible.

The market rallied today, likely just some relief from oil pulling back below 130 on demand concerns. I think if we see a weaker number than normal from memorial day driving and evidence that gas could decline as usual the market could rally back up. That has yet to be seen though. I am more likely to buy some puts if we hit 1390 again and fail to break it.

AAPL is still going strong, kind of depressing seeing as how I sold out at a significant loss that would be a gain again, of course holding through a 10 dollar downswing with no way of knowing it will rebound would be reckless. There is more evidence of it being correct as both FSLR and DRYS have fallen significantly farther. If oil starts to decline these names could rally again. I honestly cannot see oil dropping below 100 again and more likely would think it stops at 120 if it does decline more in the near future. I think a real fundamental change would have to occur to send it all the way back to 100, if it was going back to 100 though the market would likely be hitting new highs.

So for now I am watching and trying to pick out some stocks I'd like to be in with good setups, maybe I'll sit out for now and watch how thinsg develop over the next couple weeks until class is over, although there still has to be bullish and bearish stocks I can utilize I would prefer to be able to act if necessary and not be stock holding over night. Maybe I'll start attempting to use mechanical stops and see how it goes.

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