Saturday, May 3, 2008

A Push Is A Win

As they say in Vegas, "A push is a win." Meaning when you tie the dealer in blackjack you don't make any money but more importantly you don't lose any. This week was a push. I am flat compared to last week so I am still up 15% overall since starting back.

I can't be too upset, because of course I could be losing money. However its hard to see the winners I was holding that I cut loose keep making more highs. GS broke 200, so I may get back in, AAPL has yet to really take a breathe so I am not in that but plan to when it does. NVDA is working out nicely so far and I am waiting for a pull back in EWZ to get my full position on.

Visa finally had a pullback, I actually doubled my position in V. I am currently slightly below my 2% loss, in the longer term I don't see any reason for V to pull back much more because as the economy and consumer sentiment gets better spending will increase which is all good for Visa. Visa was getting unloaded though on friday fairly heavily, which I assume is profit taking, it seemed to find support around 82 but I'll have to watch it and cut it loose if necessary.

I still don't have all my capital at work. In fact, I have only 1/3 of it in trades right now. I will be looking to add positions and diversification next week on monday. The more trades I have on the greater chance I have of making money, however I can never decide if I want to put that much out there at once. I'd have to say as a general rule I'd like to have 20% available at any given time if necessary so I still have a lot of head room to add trades.

The good news is that we came down and held 13,000 and 1400 on the Dow and S&P so I think we are poised to move higher. We may be slightly overbought here and could trend sideways for a little while but if there are some good earnings next week and microsoft takes over yahoo it could be good reason to rally. I will need to be on the look out for bearish trades because I don't want to get too leveraged one way. Maybe I can hedge with some index puts if necessary. I'll do some research this weekend and try and get setup

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